The U.S. energy landscape is on the cusp of a major shift: solar now seems poised to overtake wind in installed capacity this year, then to surpass coal in the next few years. The numbers support it. Through July 2025, solar projects added around 16 GW of new capacity — that’s nearly 75% of all new generation capacity installed in the U.S. so far. Meanwhile, wind additions lagged, at about 3.2 GW.

Today, wind still leads solar by about 5 GW in active deployment, but that gap is narrowing fast. In the overall generation mix, coal still holds a strong position. But forecasts suggest that by 2028:

Solar additions could reach 92.6 GW,
Coal retirements may remove around 25 GW from the grid,
And solar’s installed base may exceed coal’s by over 44 GW.

Behind this surge is a combination of factors: high solar deployment relative to other sources, falling technology costs, and aggressive retirements of older, less efficient coal plants. The trend isn’t guaranteed — policy changes, tax incentives, and grid constraints could shift the curve. But for now, things are looking bright for solar.